Predictors and Trends of Matching into High-ranking US Neurosurgery Residency Programs

Introduction: Neurosurgery remains one of the most competitive specialties to match into. Despite this, very few studies have explored the importance of individual factors predicting a successful application. This lack of clarity can be a source of anxiety that impacts medical students’ career choices. This study investigates predictive factors for matching at high-ranking US neurosurgery programs.

Methods: We extracted publicly available data for 245 residents at 12 high ranking US neurosurgery residencies. We include variables such as the medical school residents attended, their medical school’s ranking [USNWR Research, 2022], dual degrees (PhD, MBA, MS), first author and total manuscripts [Advanced Pubmed Search] and the straight-line distance between the medical school and residency program. A linear regression was performed to assess the predictive value of each parameter on the ranking of residency. Other measures of central tendency were calculated to analyze these factors and see how recent trends have impacted the match.

Results: Among the residents, the average number of publications was 18.8 with 5.85 first authorships. 11.0% of residents are PhDs, 2.4% are MBAs, and 8.2% are international. The regression Multiple R was 0.176, meaning that these variables were not statistically significant in differentiating top residents. The average distance between medical school and residency was 893.96mi, meaning location is not statistically significant to where elite applicants pursue a residency. Of 216 residents who attended a ranked medical school, 71.76 percent attended a top 30 medical school.

Conclusion : This study looks at factors widely discussed as important for the residency match and quantifies their significance for matching into neurosurgery. These outcomes demonstrate that while these factors are important, the neurosurgery application process is likely more multifactorial than these factors alone. Further research is warranted to explore additional potential predictive factors across a more diverse set of residents.